by Gloria Tatum ——-
Millions will die in the United States and even more millions worldwide from the coronavirus according to a computer-generated analysis from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, World Health Organization Centre for Infectious Disease Modeling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics and the Imperial College London.
This is the report that got Trump to face reality and stick with facts for a few days and stop saying, “We have it under control.” But as with everything with Trump, that did not last long. He eventually reverts back to what is familiar for him – lies, bullying, blaming others, and bragging on what a good job he is doing.
Here is a link to the official 20-page report
Two strategies in the report that seek to slow down the coronavirus are mitigation and suppression.
Mitigation aims to slow the spread of the virus by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI’s) to reduce COVID-19 deaths and to reduce the health impact of the epidemic. This strategy aims to flatten the curve or reduce the spread so hospitals will not be overwhelmed by more people than they can care for. To accomplish this all people over 70 practice social distancing, all symptomatic cases put in isolation and families of those cases put in quarantine.
The report finds evidence that the rate of hospitalization and death increases with age. People over 60, 70 and 80 are at greater risk of requiring critical care and higher percentages of deaths.
This does not mean that younger people don’t get sick or die from COVID-19 but that the percentage of death in younger people is lower.
People from ages 20 to 29 with the virus require hospitalization at 1.2% and have a death rate of 0.03%. People ages 70 to 79 with the virus require hospitalization at a rate of 24.3% and have a death rate of 5.1%, and for those over 80, the death rate is 9.3%, according to the report.
Suppression aims to reduce the transmission of the virus. It is similar to mitigation but more restrictive in that the entire population practices social distancing.
Suppression strategy isolates symptomatic cases, quarantines their family members, social distancing of the whole population, all public gatherings, schools, universities, and places where large crowd gather are closed. Only necessary workplaces like hospitals, pharmacies, grocery stores will stay open. People are encouraged to buy on-line and those that can work on-line.
Suppression works in the short term but the virus will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed until a vaccine is produced and that may take 12 to 18 months.
In an unmitigated epidemic (we do nothing and treat it like the flu) 80% of Americans would get the virus and 2.2 million Americans will die.
Mitigation, (case insolation, home quarantine, and people over 70 practice social distancing,) cuts the death rate from the virus in half but it will still kill 1.1 million people in the U.S., according to the report.
According to the charts, the infection rate jumps up in April and remains high during May and June and starts to come down in July. However, if intervention is relaxed before a vaccine is given to the entire population the virus comes roaring back and kills again as it did before.
People with underlying medical conditions like hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and respiratory diseases are also in high-risk groups.
Other Vulnerable Groups
There are other vulnerable high-risk groups the report does not talk about.
Jails, prisons and detention centers where people can’t practice social distancing will become a petri dish where the virus will rapidly spread. Asylum seekers should immediately be released from detention centers.
The Prison Policy Initiative recommends that police stop the practice of re-arresting and imprisoning people for technical probation and parole violations, release non-violent elderly prisoners and other demands to slow the spread of the virus in prisons.
The homeless population is another group vulnerable to the virus that needs help now. Marshall Rancifer, Founder of Justice for All Coalition, has been passing out hand sanitizers, personal hygiene items, a flyer that covers the CDC protocols and other survival items to the homeless in Atlanta. He needs more help and money for the unsheltered during this pandemic which is already spreading in this community.
Rev.William Francis on facebook wrote ” today I went out and got asked by some homeless – Are we gonna die? Told on numerous occasions – I’m starving!!! Or I’m thirty (dehydrated)!!! … And those in leadership have no plans and are not in touch with reality.”
Trump’s coronavirus leadership Sucks
President Trump goes on television and promises everything but does nothing. There is no leadership coming from the White House, only misinformation, lies, bullying and bragging on what a great job he is doing.
He called the COVID-19 pandemic a “democratic hoax”. This is not leadership, this is part of the problem.
Trump says, “No one saw this coming”. In fact, pandemics is one of the things Obama warned him about. Trump ignored Obama’s warning and fired the pandemic response team in 2018.
The U.S. intelligence agency told Trump in January and February about the coronavirus pandemic that was coming but he ignored the warnings and did nothing but had time to play golf.
Trump dismantled many agencies that deal with crisis management and cut funds to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and other agencies.
He continues to give inaccurate and misleading statements on TV that don’t reflect reality and confuses the public about the COVID pandemic.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, goes behind Trump to clean up the lies and give truthful information and scientific facts about coronavirus.
“Anybody can get a test that wants a test,” Trump said on national TV but that is not true. COVID-19 test shortages continue as hospitals and doctors plead for more tests.
If the U.S. had been prepared with COVID tests at the beginning of the outbreak this would have allowed officials to stay ahead of the virus and know which communities were the most impacted by the disease.
Now hospitals and doctors are begging for more face masks, gloves, protective clothing, nasal swabs, respirators, ventilators, COVID-19 test kits, more beds, and medical supplies to fight this disease. Some hospitals are having to reuse face masks and protective gear to keep doctors and nurses safe from the virus.
Trump has yet to use the Defense Production Act to get the country to manufacture more protective gear for doctors and ventilators for patients. Many hospitals are running out of protective supplies and need more medical equipment. There will be a lot of unnecessary deaths due to Trump’s incompetence.
Trump calls himself “a war president” but there is an obvious vacuum of leadership at the top. Fortunately, that vacuum is being filled by governors, mayors, health care professionals, and companies who are doing what needs to be done in the face of inaction on the federal level.
Coronavirus is Trump’s Katrina!